The town of Kampi Ya Samaki was once a bustling fishing and tourism center on the shores of Lake Baringo, one of a chain of major lakes nestled in the Great Rift Valley of western Kenya. Today, however, much of the town is submerged, with only the tops of houses, hotels, churches, and schools still visible. Seven islands used to sit just offshore. But the rising waters mean now “there are six,” says Evans Limo, a local tour guide.
Such flooding has become a common sight throughout the Rift Valley, where lakes have swelled over the past decade. Lake Baringo, for example, has doubled in area since 2010 to about 26,000 hectares. Kenyan officials say the flooding has created “panic and anxiety” in lakeshore communities and affected nearly 400,000 people, with many forced to abandon their homes. In some communities, shifting shorelines have exposed residents to deadly attacks by crocodiles and hippos.
Now, a novel lawsuit brought by people living around Lake Baringo has put a spotlight on the question of whether climate change is to blame for the rising lakes—and whether Kenya’s constitution and a landmark 2016 climate law obligate government agencies to compensate flooding victims. The goal of the court challenge, which was scheduled to get a hearing this week, is to “enforce the climate change duties of public officials,” says Omondi Owino, the lead attorney representing the residents. The case, analysts say, is among the first in Africa to test a government’s responsibility for helping its citizens cope with the impacts of climate change.
For years, residents and researchers were uncertain about the cause of the expanding lakes. Some believed the trend was tied to the complex geology and groundwater hydrology of the Great Rift Valley, a series of faults and ridges stretching 7000 kilometers from Lebanon across eastern Africa to Mozambique. Historically, they noted, the lakes have periodically shrunk and grown dramatically, to sizes even larger than seen today, perhaps because of crustal movements.
Others believed climate change was to blame. Average temperatures in eastern Africa have climbed by about 1 °C over the past 50 years, and climate models have predicted that the region would become wetter as it warmed. But real-world data have complicated those predictions by showing that, although regional precipitation has ticked up in recent decades, droughts have also become more prevalent—a puzzle scientists have dubbed “the eastern Africa climate paradox.”
To clarify the issues, in 2020 the Kenyan government commissioned a major inquiry into the causes and consequences of the flooding. Research teams visited the lakes and combed through data on land use, climate, and hydrology. In a 2021 report they concluded that a number of factors were likely contributing to lake expansion, including land use changes that have accelerated runoff and caused sediment to build up on lake bottoms. But, “The main reason for the rising water levels is climate change,” the authors wrote. The report noted that precipitation had increased in upland areas, as the models predicted, especially in 2019, a particularly wet year. Rivers feeding the lakes had swelled, even as rainy, cooler weather reduced evaporation. “The inputs increased and the main output—which is evaporation— was reduced due to the cold spells and extended rains,” says geologist Lydia Olaka of the Technical University of Kenya.
Mathew Herrnegger, a hydrologist of the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, who was not involved the report, agrees with that analysis. Other studies, he notes, have concluded that “the Rift Valley lakes are very sensitive to changes in climate, which has led to complete desiccation but also high [water levels] in the past.”
The 2021 report also suggested the government address the humanitarian crisis caused by the flooding, including by resettling displaced people and perhaps even buying submerged properties. But adequate help never materialized, alleges the lawsuit filed in 2022 by 66 members of the Ilchamus and Tugen communities against the county government of Baringo and national agencies.
That inaction, argue the residents and Kituo Cha Sheria, a Nairobi-based advocacy group, violates human rights provisions of Kenya’s constitution and the 2016 climate law, which was the first such measure adopted by an African nation. Among other things, that law empowers the government to “mobilize … public and other financial resources for climate change response.” The lawsuit alleges that government officials “failed, refused, or neglected” to “anticipate, prevent, or minimize” the impacts of climate change.
Government lawyers have rejected that claim in recent filings at the Environment and Land Court in Iten. Even if climate change is causing the flooding, they say the government is not responsible for paying damages because Kenya is not a major contributor to planetary warming. And the county government argues that it, too, is a victim of the flooding. It notes the rising lakes have swallowed numerous government facilities, such as police stations and schools, and reduced revenues from the tourism industry.
As Science went to press, each side was preparing for a 24 October court hearing. The outcome of the case is hard to predict, observers say, and any decision might not come for many more months.
© OfficialAffairs
